Editorial: Is Gartner wrong or is just an Apple´s iPad fan boy. ?

WorldWide Tech & Science. Francisco De Jesús.

Is Gartner wrong or is just an Apple´s iPad fan boy. ?

Gartner is one of the best research and forecasting  companies in the world, but on the latest tablets market share forecast made by them yesterday April 11^th about how is and will look the tablets market share worldwide  from years 2010 to 2015 is not completely reliable.

Let´s take a walk making some analysis of the chart:

1.-Gartner forecast with real facts numbers about the iPad because the tablet  has more than one year out and the version iPad2 is out now. The same panorama is for the Androids Samsung Galaxy Tab and Motorola XOOM, they are already out. However you cannot know how these companies and others  Androids to come like Acer, Archos will do their marketing strategy to get buy, yet.

2.-The Blackberry Playbook and the HP webOS  TouchPad are not even  out yet and Gartner says these brands will sell between 3,9 to 29,4 million units for the BB and 2,7 to 8,8 million units  for the HP, both for the years 2011 to 2015. You cannot forecast just because you have a hunch.

3.-The chart is not showing the years 2013 and 2014 forecasts.

4.-RIM and HP have a different enterprise approaches that the Apple´s  iPad lacks.

5.-We suggest to Gartner to make separated charts: One for the multimedia tablets and one for the enterprise tablets.

6.-HP is the world´s largest technology company and are projecting to have the webOS as OS in all the devices as possible in the next 2012. Gartner will need to consider that projection too, and make different charts.

7.- Barnes & Noble has publicly stated its intent to turn the Nook Color into a rich Android tablet; the company plans a software update this spring to do just that and is already accepting third-party applications for its app store. Is the Nook Color included in the chart data.?

8.- 2015 is at least two (or more) product cycles away.

 In the past 12 months, Apple’s iPad has already undergone one hardware revision as well as gained more software functionality: a dual-core processor with improved graphics, two cameras, and the ability to multitask, for example. While the iPad may not see monumental design changes each year, Apple is sure to evolve the device several times in the next four years. The same holds true for other tablet makers using different platforms.

“It’s too early to predict what the tablet market will look like several device iterations from now due to powerful new processors on the way, faster mobile broadband in wider coverage areas and improvements in mobile software and apps.”

9.-Conclusion:

The are too many market ways to change the consumer preferences, and forecasting  4 years ahead that way Gartner did ,is wrong, this time.

Related post: gigaom and gartner

Gartner Says Apple iOS to Dominate the Media Tablet Market Through 2015, Owning More Than Half of It for the Next Three Years.

WorldWideTech & Science. Roberto Gómez.

Press Release:

Despite mounting competition from other operating systems (OSs), Apple’s iOS will continue to own the majority of the worldwide media tablet through 2015, according to Gartner, Inc. Due to the success of Apple’s iPad, iOS will account for 69 percent of media tablet OSs in 2011, and represent 47 percent of the media tablet market in 2015.

Gartner analysts said Apple iPad did to the tablet PC market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invented it. A media tablet is not just a different form factor to perform the same tasks that can be done on a PC. Tablets deliver a richer experience around content consumption, thanks to the ecosystem they support. The richer the ecosystem, the stronger the pull for consumers.

“Seeing the response from both consumers and enterprises to the iPad, many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. “Many, however, are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience. Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple.”

Google’s Android OS is forecast to increase its worldwide share of the media tablet market from 20 percent in 2011 to 39 percent in 2015 (see Table 1). Analysts said Google’s decision not to open up the Honeycomb, its first OS version dedicated to tablets, to third parties will prevent fragmentation, but it will also slow the price decline and ultimately cap market share.

“Volume will be driven by support from many players, the ecosystem of applications for tablets getting more competitive and some platform flexibility allowing lower price points,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. “The new licensing model Google has introduced with Honeycomb enables Google to drive more control, allowing only optimal tablet implementations that don’t compromise quality of experience. This might mean that prices will drop at a slower pace than what we have seen in the smartphone market.”

Table 1

Worldwide Sales of Media Tablets to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

OS	2010	2011	2012	2015
iOS	14,766	47,964	68,670	138,497
Market Share (%)	83.9	68.7	63.5	47.1
Android	2,502	13,898	26,382	113,457
Market Share (%)	14.2	19.9	24.4	38.6
MeeGo	107	788	1,271	3,057
Market Share (%)	0.6	1.1	1.2	1.0
WebOS	0	2,796	4,245	8,886
Market Share (%)	0.0	4.0	3.9	3.0
QNX	0	3,901	7,134	29,496
Market Share (%)	0.0	5.6	6.6	10.0
Other Operating Systems	234	432	510	700
Market Share (%)	1.3	0.6	0.5	0.2
Total Market	17,610	69,780	108,211	294,093

Source: Gartner (April 2011)

With the migration of Blackberry devices to QNX – the OS used on the Blackberry PlayBook - in 2012, RIM will be able to offer users a consistent experience across its whole product portfolio and create a single developer community. While QNX is a strong platform that delivers on performance, graphics and multitasking features, Gartner analysts said success in the media tablet market will be driven by richness of ecosystem.

“It will take time and significant effort for RIM to attract developers and deliver a compelling ecosystem of applications and services around QNX to position it as a viable alternative to Apple or Android. This will limit RIM’s market share growth over the forecast period,” Ms. Milanesi said. “It will be mainly organizations that will be interested in RIM’s tablets because they either already have RIM’s infrastructure deployed or have stringent security requirements.”

Gartner analysts said platforms such as MeeGo and WebOS, which currently have a weak presence in the smartphone market, will have a limited appeal unless they can grow that business.

“Smartphone users will want to buy a tablet that runs the same operating system as their smartphone. This is so that they can share applications across devices as well as for the sense of familiarity the user interfaces will bring,” Ms. Milanesi said. “Vendors developing on Android should be prepared to see more cross brand ownership as some users might put OS over brand when it comes to the purchasing decision. Improvements on usability and brand recognition are the strongest differentiators they can focus on.”

A media tablet is a device based on a touchscreen display (typically with a multitouch interface) whose primary focus is the consumption of media. The devices have screens with a diagonal dimension that is over 5 inches and may include screens that are as large as is practical for handheld use, roughly up to 15 inches. The media tablet runs a lightweight OS such as Android and iOS that is more limited than, or a subset of, the traditional fully featured OS such as Windows.

Gartner’s detailed forecast is available in the report “Forecast: Media Tablets by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015.” The report is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1624614.

Contacts:

Christy Pettey

Gartner

+1 408 468 8312

christy.pettey@gartner.com

Holly Stevens

Gartner

+44 0 1784 267412

holly.stevens@gartner.com

About Gartner:

Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the valuable partner to 60,000 clients in 11,000 distinct organizations. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A., and has 4,400 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, and clients in 85 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.