Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (Desktop, Notebook, and
Workstation) totaled 70.2 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016
(4Q16), posting a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, according to the
International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results continued the recent trend of stabilizing growth, which has been in decline since 2012.
Annually,
shipments of traditional PCs slipped to 260 million units, down 5.7%
from 2015. The first quarter of 2016 was still constrained by high
inventory, free Windows 10 upgrades, and difficult comparisons to
commercial replacements in 2014 that were fueled by the end of support
for Windows XP. However, mid-2016 and particularly the recent fourth
quarter have moved beyond these inhibitors and seen stabilizing
commercial demand. Contraction of the consumer PC market has also slowed
as growth and competition from tablets and phones has eased up. Recent
quarters have faced some tight supply of components such as SSDs,
displays, and memory. The supply constraints did not significantly slow
overall shipments, and in fact may have boosted growth slightly and
accelerated market consolidation as the largest players moved to lock up
supply
Mature regions continued to perform best. Japan and
Canada extended positive growth from 3Q16, while volume in the Europe,
Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region was stable. Shipments in the
United States declined slightly, although the country performed slightly
better than the global average. Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan)(APeJ)
continued to improve with only a mild decline in shipments while Latin
America continued to experience significant contraction.
"The fourth quarter results reinforce our expectations for market stabilization, and even some recovery," said Loren Loverde,
vice president, Personal Computing Trackers & Forecasting. "The
contraction in traditional PC shipments experienced over the past five
years finally appears to be giving way as users move to update systems.
We have a good opportunity for traditional PC growth in commercial
markets, while the consumer segment should also improve as it feels less
pressure from slowing phone and tablet markets."
"The U.S. PC
market was able to pull off a strong last quarter of the year with
impressive growth in the retail PC segment that surpassed expectations,"
said Neha Mahajan,
senior research analyst, Devices & Displays. "Although this might
signal regained consumer confidence in the PC market, with most of the
sales being driven by aggressive promotions in the holiday season, it
needs to be seen how much of the real demand is carried forward in the
coming quarters."
Regional Highlights
The United States market
witnessed a slight decline in shipments this quarter. Following
inventory growth in the third quarter, the fourth quarter saw growth
toning down. At the same time, the retail PC market in the U.S. came out
strong, backed by aggressive promotions by top PC vendors in December.
Overall, traditional PC shipments for 4Q16 stood at 17.0 million units.
The EMEA
market performed better than expected, fueled by strong holiday season
sales of traditional PCs. While desktops performed in line with IDC's
expectations, notebooks grew above forecast across the region. However,
component shortages are expected to have driven some of the vendors'
shipment towards inventory build-up.
The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan)
traditional PC market continued to stabilize with only a slight
year-on-year contraction. The demonetization crisis in India had a
significant impact on the market, stifling demand and inhibiting
shipments in the consumer and SMB segments, but recovery towards the end
of the quarter allowed for more sell-in. In China, robust demand for
consumer notebooks supported by a shift to thin and light devices
continued. The commercial market in most APeJ countries remained soft.
Projects in India have been delayed, while China saw weaker than
expected commercial demand. A negative macroeconomic environment also
inhibited shipments, particularly in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and
the Philippines. On the other hand, larger orders from the public sector
pushed the commercial market above expectations in Korea.
The Japan
traditional PC market came in ahead of forecast, but still slowed from
the third quarter, as expected. Consumer shipments remained under
pressure while the commercial segment was resilient, driving overall
growth in 4Q16.
Vendor Highlights
Lenovo
continued to hold the top spot, though the competition with HP remains
fierce. The top vendor still faced a tough climate in APeJ but made
significant strides in the holiday quarter in Europe and the Americas
with a stronger performance in notebooks and capped the quarter growing
globally at 1.7%, ending six consecutive quarters of year-on-year
declines.
HP Inc. held the second position, growing 6.6%
compared to 4Q15 for its third consecutive quarter of positive growth
and shipping more than 15 million units for the first time since 4Q14.
HP Inc. further consolidated its share in the United States market,
growing its market share to 31%. The company also saw sizable gains in
EMEA and APeJ.
Dell Technologies also had a productive
quarter with shipments of just over 11 million (the first time it has
done so since 4Q11) and growth of 8.2%. The number 3 vendor managed
positive year-on-year growth in every region with strong notebook volume
as well as a positive desktop quarter.
Apple was boosted
by the launch of new MacBook Pro models during the fourth quarter. The
company moved back into fourth place and stabilized global shipments.
ASUS
growth slipped in the fourth quarter, particularly in the U.S., but
remained in the top 5 globally, ranking number four for all of 2016.
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