According to a new mobile phone forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 10.4% in 2015 to 1.44 billion units.
This is lower than IDC's previous smartphone forecast
of 11.3% year-over-year growth in 2015. IDC expects to see a noticeable
slowdown in smartphone shipments in 2015 as China joins North America
and Western Europe in a more mature growth pattern.
However, steadily
falling average selling prices (ASPs) will fuel steady growth through
the end of the forecast period, with global shipments reaching 1.9
billion units in 2019.
China remains the focal point of the global smartphone market in
2015, although the results haven't been as positive as in previous
years. As the largest market for smartphones – China consumed 32.3% of
all new smartphone shipments in 2014 – its importance remains great even
if its growth has begun to slow.
Shipments are forecast to grow just
1.2% year over year in 2015, which is down from 19.7% in 2014. China
will remain the largest market for smartphone volumes throughout the
forecast period. However, its share of the overall market is expected to
drop to 23.1% in 2019 as high-growth markets like India continue to
expand.
"China clearly remains a very important market. However, the focus
will be more on exports than consumption as domestic growth slows
significantly," said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
"India has captured a lot of the attention that China previously
received and it's now the market with the most potential upside.
The
interesting thing to watch will be the possibility of manufacturing
moving from China and Vietnam over to India. We've begun to see this
move as a means to cut costs and capitalize on financial benefits
associated with localized India manufacturing. It is the local vendors
like Micromax, Lava, and Intex that will feel the most pressure from
international competition within its market."
Despite Apple's continued success with its variants of the iPhone,
the story among operating systems is not expected to change throughout
the forecast, with Android's 81% share in 2015 carrying forward until
2019. Markets with the biggest growth opportunity are extremely price
sensitive, which IDC believes will not change, and this is the main
reason Apple will be challenged to take Android share throughout the
forecast.
Even if Apple were to introduce another low-cost iPhone (e.g.,
‘C’ version), IDC believes the price will struggle to compete with
Android OEMs that are focused on portfolios aimed at price points of
$200 and less. This isn't to suggest that Apple's success with the
iPhone won't continue, and IDC believes its efforts to maintain
significantly higher margins compared to its competitors are much more
valuable than chasing share.
Android shipments globally are expected to
grow from 1.06 billion in 2014 to 1.54 billion in 2019, while iOS
shipments will grow from 192.7 million in 2014 to 269.6 million in 2019.
IDC's view that Microsoft/Windows Phone will remain a marginal
challenger at best has not changed.
On the device front, phablets (smartphones with 5.5"-7" screens) will
continue to drive shipment volumes in both emerging and developed
markets. "Since Apple finally delivered a larger screen smartphone with
the iPhone 6+, the demand for large screened devices among consumers has
been at a record high," said Anthony Scarsella, Research Manager with IDC’s Mobile Phones team.
"Smartphones featuring display sizes from 5.5 inches to 6 inches are
forecast to grow 84% in 2015 compared to last year, while phablets
overall will make up over 71% of shipments by 2019." It is also worth
noting that this screen size (5.5"-6") also plays the role of having the
highest average selling prices for devices throughout the forecast.
IDC
expects this screen size band to be the placeholder for a majority of
vendors' flagship device launches throughout the forecast period.
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